Sun Belt Tournament Preview: Bracket One

The Sun Belt Conference Tournament begins Thursday at the UNO Lakefront Arena in New Orleans. Here is my analysis of the upper bracket featuring the #1, #4, #5 and #8 seeds.

#1 SEED---GEORGIA STATE PANTHERS (22-9, 15-5) Coach Ron Hunter, 84-46, 4^th season. Record vs. teams in Bracket One, 4-2 (1-1 vs. Louisiana, 2-0 vs. UT Arlington, 1-1 vs. Texas State)

STRENGTHS: There’s no better one-two punch in this league than Ryan Harrow and R. J. Hunter. Hunter is the POY for the second straight year. Both are capable of getting 30 or more on any given night. Harrow can get by just about any defender in the league. His year offensively has been good enough to where Hunter doesn’t always have to score. He’s averaging nearly four assists per game. Because they are so good, Markus Crider doesn’t get nearly enough credit for being an all-conference caliber player. Panthers’ 2-3 zone defense is considerably better than it was a year ago and can be stifling at times. Panthers have an excellent assist/turnover ratio. Georgia State’s free throw shooting in league play has been phenomenally consistent.

WEAKNESSES: Not a particularly deep team. The big three average 33-37 minutes per game in league play. Outside of Kevin Ware off the bench, the big three are going to get the bulk of the points. If you can penetrate their defense, inside guys (Crider, Washington, Shipes) are all foul prone. Not a great rebounding team, although better than last year. Harrow has been bothered by a hamstring injury but should be ready to play. Surprisingly, Georgia State has not been a really good three point shooting team.

OUTLOOK: This team lost five conference games and that means they have some deficiencies. If you keep them off the free throw line you might have a chance. But, pick your poison. Both Harrow and Hunter are really tough to guard and even if you shut one of them down, there’s no guarantee you’re going to win. Georgia State still has a sour taste over what happened in New Orleans last year. They’ll be determined to not let it happen again. They proved they are the best team in the league over a 20 game schedule. Now they have to prove it in the tournament. And, if it’s Louisiana in the semis, GSU would have to play a team that’s peaking at the right time.

#4 LOUISIANA RAGIN’ CAJUNS (19-12, 12-7) Coach: Bob Marlin 85-75, 5^th season. Record vs. teams in Bracket One, 4-2 (1-1 vs. Georgia State, 1-1 vs. UT Arlington, 2-0 vs. Texas State.)

STRENGTHS: First team All-Sun Belt Shawn Long is the best inside player this league has seen in years. He can score inside and outside and is a surprisingly good passer. Jay Wright is probably the league’s more improved player from the beginning of the season and just might be the best on-ball defender in the league. Frankly, his appearance on the third team is a joke. He’s easily a second team selection. He brings leadership and toughness to a team that needed both early in the season. Cajuns have multiple shooting weapons and is one of the league’s deepest teams. This is a relentless rebounding team on both ends of the floor. Hayward Register has become the Sun Belt’s most dangerous shooter.

WEAKNESSES: They like to play fast and that means they sometimes play out of control. They turn it over more than they’d like. Although they’ve been good defensively down the stretch, this team has struggled to keep the other team from scoring at times, especially at the guard position. They are capable of shooting 85% percent from the free throw line on any given night. They’re also capable of shooting 55 percent. Brian Williams, the only player besides Long averaging double figures, has missed the last four games and is doubtful for the tournament (shoulder.)

OUTLOOK---Sometimes statistics lie, sometimes they don’t. The Cajuns are 8-1 in league play when holding the opponents under 40%. And, they’ve only won one game when shooting under 40%. They’ve won six in a row because their defense has played to its capabilities. And, that’s going to be their whole story in this tournament. They may not be the best team in the league, but they’re playing the league’s best basketball entering the tournament. And, that’s just the way Bob Marlin likes it.

#5 UT ARLINGTON MAVERICKS (16-14, 10-10) Coach: Scott Cross, 153-137, 9^th Record vs. teams in Bracket One, 3-3 (0-2 vs Georgia State, 1-1 vs. Louisiana, 2-0 vs. Texas State)

STRENGTHS: This is a deep basketball team that, even with injuries, goes nine deep. Lonnie McClanahan has been to the free throw line 162 times and his slashing style of play causes problems for opposing defenses. Both Greg Gainey and Kevin Hervey are tough matchups from the power forward position because of their ability to make the three point shot. Freshman Erick Neal is going to be a very good player in this league.

WEAKNESSES: Not a good free throw shooting team (.669). Their guys inside can block some shots but Bilbao, Williams and Walker aren’t going to scare you as scorers. Jamel Outler is as streaky as they come. He can get hot from the outside or he can clang one after another and the Mavs aren’t nearly as good when the latter happens. Overall, they aren’t a particularly good shooting team. Since losing guards Johnny Hill and Drew Charles to injuries, this team just hasn’t been the same.

OUTLOOK: This team is staggering into the tournament, having lost four of its last five games. They just haven’t found anyone to step up since losing Hill and Charles. That doesn’t mean they aren’t capable in this tournament, especially if Outler has one of those big shooting nights. They have some really good freshmen and the future is bright in Arlington, but their chances of cutting down the ends ended when Hill and Charles went down.

#8 TEXAS STATE BOBCATS (13-16, 7-13) Coach: Danny Kaspar. 21-38, 2^nd Record vs. teams in Bracket One, 1-5 (1-1 vs. Georgia State, 0-2 vs. Louisiana, 0-2 vs. UT Arlington

STRENGTHS: This team can defend, and that keeps them in games. Teams shoot barely 40% overall and 30% from beyond the arc against this team. Deliberate style of play is designed to keep things close until the end which gives this team chances to win despite its deficiencies. Emani Gant is a legitimate all-league player. He’s listed at 6-8, but that’s not even close. His athleticism makes him a tough guard. Cameron Naylor compliments Gant well inside. He’s a good rebounder and can hit the mid range jumper. Wes Davis is a really solid defender on the perimeter.

WEAKNESSES: Talent-wise they are limited. They simply aren’t very good offensively. At all. They don’t shoot it well from the perimeter and their guard play has been very inconsistent. They’re only shooting 38% in league play and they are abysmal (30.8) in triples. They don’t get to the free throw line a bunch and they’re around 70% which is about middle of the pack. After Gant and Naylor, there really isn’t anyone to help with rebounding the basketball.

OUTLOOK—Make no mistake about the fact this team is better than they were a year ago. Danny Kaspar has won a lot of games in his career but he’s only in year two of trying to build a program that has very little basketball tradition. Although UTA swept the season series, don’t count this team out to get at least one win in the tournament. Their defense is going to give them a chance.