Tracking Harvey – The Latest And The Forecast
(Updated 30 Aug 2017 - 07:00 CDT) As of the 7 AM Advisory from the National Hurricane Center the center of the storm system has now moved north Cameron, Louisiana and is west north weast of Lake Charles, Louisiana.
You can get a really nice visual of where the storm is via the National Weather Service Radar out of Lake Charles. Harvey was moving to the north at 7 mph and that motion and forward speed are expected to continue throughout the day.
Maximum sustained winds were reported to be 45 mph with some gusts reported to be higher. Harvey is expected to weaken to tropical depression status later today and will eventually move through the center of the country and off the east coast by Monday.
Rainfall amounts around the Lafayette and Acadiana area will generally be less than one inch for today. Most of the heavier precipitation is on the western side of the circulation and well to the east of the center of circulation.
The rainfall forecast is depicted in the graphic below provided by the National Hurricane Center.
(Updated 29 Aug 2017 - 16:00 CDT) Tropical Storm Harvey is crawling toward the coast at this hour. The current track should bring the system onshore near the Texas Louisiana border later this evening or in the early hours of Wednesday morning.
The 4 PM advisory from the National Hurricane Center fixed the center of circulation 75 miles south of Cameron Louisiana. The storm was moving to the north northeast at 6 mph. On this current track, Harvey should make landfall between midnight at 6 AM.
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from Morgan City Louisiana westward to Port O'Connor in Texas. A Tropical Storm Watch extends eastward from Morgan City to Grand Isle Louisiana.
The storm has maximum sustained winds of 50 mph and tropical storm force winds extend 160 miles out from the center, mainly to the east of the center of circulation. Heavy rains, gusty winds, and a storm surge of 1 to 3 feet can be expected along the coast as the system moves closer.
The graphic below provided by the National Hurricane Center illustrates where the greatest rainfall potential will be over the next several hours.
(Updated 29 Aug 2017 - 10:00 CDT) Tropical Storm Harvey is now expected to cross the Louisiana coastline in Cameron Parish shortly after sunrise on Wednesday. The 10 AM Advisory from the National Hurricane Center has pushed up the timeline by a few hours.
The most recent advisory put the center of the storm about 115 miles south southwest of Cameron Louisiana. Harvey was moving to the north northwest at 5 mph. At this rate, the center should be on or near the Louisiana coast early Wednesday.
Maximum sustained winds remained at 45 mph and strengthening is not expected.
A Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect from Morgan City westward to Mesquite Bay Texas. Interest along the coast can expect tropical storm force winds over the next 24 to 36 hours and stronger gusts in squalls.
There is a potential for a storm surge of 1 to 3 feet in the warned area. Heavy rainfall is also likely for South Louisiana and Southeast Texas over the next 24 to 36 hours as the system moves inland. Additional rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches are possible during the next 24 to 36 hours.
(Updated 29 Aug 2017- 07:00 CDT) Tropical Storm Harvey is now moving very slowly to the east northeast at 3 mph. This is in agreement with the National Hurricane Center track forecast issued earlier today.
The maximum sustained winds at the center of the storm were 45 mph. The center of the storm was determined to be 145 miles south southwest of Port Arthur Texas.
The Hurricane Center's next full advisory is at 10:00 AM CDT.
(Updated 29 Aug 2017 - 04:00 CDT) Tropical downpours and gusty breezes will continue to be Tropical Storm Harvey's calling card today. The center of the storm at the 4 AM Advisory was located about 135 miles south southwest of Port Arthur Texas. The system continues a very slow drift to the east at 3 mph.
The latest forecast track from the National Hurricane Center suggests that Harvey will continue its slow drift for the morning hours and by later today should begin to move in a northeasterly direction. That should be followed by a more northerly turn this evening. The track forecast brings Harvey near the Texas Louisiana border shortly after noon on Wednesday.
The maximum sustained winds associated with Harvey continue to be 45 mph. Tropical storm force winds extend out from the center of circulation 175 miles. Gusty winds and heavy rain squalls will increase as Harvey gets closer to the coastline later today and tonight.
Currently, a tropical storm warning is posted from Intracoastal City Louisiana westward to Mesquite Bay in Texas. A tropical storm surge watch has been posted to the east of the warned area through Morgan City Louisiana.
A swath of dry air has infiltrated the circulation of Harvey and that is the likely reason that rainfall projection according to the National Hurricane Center has been decreased for the next few days. Those projections are illustrated in the graphic below.
(Updated 28 Aug 2017 - 16:00 CDT) The National Hurricane Center in its 4 PM advisory reported that Tropical Storm Harvey had maximum sustained winds of 45 mph. That is up slightly from the previous advisory. The center of circulation of the storm is now over water and was determined to be 45 miles east of Port O'Connor Texas or about 145 miles south of Port Arthur Texas.
Harvey continued to drift to the east southeast at 3 mph. A general slow motion to the southeast is forecast through tonight. The system is expected to turn toward the northeast during the day tomorrow. That motion is expected to bring Harvey on shore for a third landfall near the Texas Louisiana border on Wednesday.
Forecasters do not anticipate Harvey strengthening much more between now and the eventual landfall on Wednesday. Tropical Storm Warnings are currently posted from Intracoastal City Louisiana westward to Mesquite Bay Texas. A storm surge watch has been extended eastward to Morgan City Louisiana.
Flooding rains and the possibility of tornadoes will continue to be the biggest threat from this system in South Louisiana. The Lake Charles area could see an additional six to ten inches of rainfall over the next several days. While the area from Lafayette eastward might see only four to six inches. Regardless of the amount, any additional rainfall will exacerbate the already high water conditions in the area. Those are generalizations based on the graphic display from the National Hurricane Center below.
(Updated 28 Aug 2017- 10:00 CDT) Tropical storm warnings and tropical storm watches have been posted for the Louisiana coast. The 10 AM advisory from the National Hurricane Center included the extension of tropical storm warnings eastward from High Island Texas to Cameron Louisiana. A Tropical storm watch is now posted from Cameron eastward to Intracoastal City Louisiana.
These watches and warnings are in response to the new forecast track advisory issued at 10 AM. This track brings tropical storm Harvey back on shore between Houston and Lake Charles early Wednesday morning.
The major threat from Harvey will continue to be flooding rains. Flood warnings and watches have been posted for much of South Louisiana. Forecasters are predicting another 10 to 15 inches of rain for much of Southwest Louisiana between now and Friday. Persons living in South Central Louisiana should expect between six and ten inches of additional precipitation over that same time frame.
(Updated 28 Aug 2017 - 04:00 CDT) Tropical Storm Harvey continues to drift slowly toward the Gulf of Mexico this morning. Forecasters with the National Hurricane Center have determined the center of circulation of the storm to be about 15 miles north northeast of Port O'Connor Texas. The system was moving toward the southeast at 3 mph. This motion should put the center of Harvey back over water later today.
Forecasters believe the system will take a northeasterly turn during the day on Tuesday. Some strengthening of the system is possible while the center of circulation remains over water.
The 4 AM forecast track keeps Harvey as a major player in South Louisiana's weather forecast at least through Thursday. The main threat from the system will be continued heavy rainfall.
The Storm Prediction Center has placed much of Louisiana south of I-10 in the slight risk category for severe weather including tornadoes. Flash Flood Watches have been posted for much of the area through Thursday.
Here is the current radar loop from the National Weather Service office in Lake Charles. This will give you an up to the minute idea of where the heaviest rain is falling. This storm total loop will give you an idea where the heaviest rain has fallen over the past hour.
(Updated 27 Aug 2017 - 16:00 CDT) Tropical Storm Harvey continues to maintain its status as a minimal tropical storm. At 4 PM the National Hurricane Center Advisory listed the maximum sustained winds at 40 mph. The system is crawling slowly to the southeast at 2 mph. The center of the storm's circulation was reported to be 25 miles northwest of Victoria Texas.
The newly issued forecast track suggests that Harvey will still be a major weather player through Thursday. If the forecast track holds true the system should move north of Texas and Louisiana by Friday.
While officials along the Texas Gulf Coast are attempting to assess the wind and wave damage from Harvey's landfall on Friday most of the focus today has been on the torrential rains that Harvey has spawned in Southeast Texas and South Louisiana.
The current radar scan from the Lake Charles National Weather Service office shows where some of the stronger rain bands are located. This loop shows how much rain has fallen over the past hour. This loop shows how much rain has fallen over the lifetime of the storm.
The latest rainfall forecast suggests that Southwest Louisiana, including Lake Charles, could see an additional 15 to 20 inches of rain before Harvey leaves the area later this week. The area west of a Vermilion Bay to Toledo Bend line could receive another 10 to 15 inches of rain. Areas to the east of that line could experience another four to ten inches of precipitation. The graphic below illustrates the projected rainfall.
(Updated 27 Aug 2017 - 10:00 CDT) Harvey is a minimal tropical storm that is producing catastrophic flooding across Texas. Some media reports say that there have been over 1,000 high water rescues in the Houston metro area. Radar reports indicate well over two feet of rain has already fallen and the forecast suggests there could be an additional foot to a foot and half.
The maximum sustained winds of the system are at 40 mph and the motion of the storm is a painfully slow drift to the south southeast at 2 mph. As of the 10 AM advisory, the center of the storm was determined to be 35 miles west northwest of Victoria Texas.
Harvey continues to produce rainfall amounts in excess of two inches per hour over portions of Texas and extreme southwestern Louisiana. The Lake Charles National Weather Service radar shows the heaviest activity is generally west of a Lafayette to Alexandria line at this time.
Flooding will be the major focus for South Louisiana over the next several days as the rainfall potential forecast suggests there could be an additional six to ten inches of precipitation across the region.
(Updated 27 Aug 2017 - 04:00 CDT) Tropical Storm Harvey is causing catastrophic flooding across Texas. The center of the storm was located about 50 miles east of San Antonio at the 4 AM update from the National Hurricane Center. The maximum sustained winds were reported to be 45 mph.
The system was basically stationary but reported to be drifting to the south southwest at less than 2 mph. This slow motion will mean even more rain for an area that has already received a foot or more of precipitation.
Forecasters believe an additional 15 to 25 inches of rain could fall over the same area between now and Monday. Some locations could receive as much as 40 inches of rain before the storm finally exits the area.
That exit may not come until Wednesday as the forecast track from the Hurricane Center calls for the storm to drift back toward the coast and then eventually loop northward during the day Tuesday.
Rainfall will be the big story for South Louisiana over the next several days. The radar scan from the National Weather Service site in Lake Charles was indicating areas of moderate to heavy rain pushing across the area early this morning.
The latest rainfall forecast from the Weather Service, depicted in the graphic below, suggests that extreme southwest Louisiana including the city of Lake Charles could receive an additional 10 to 15 inches of rain over the next five days.
For the cities of Lafayette, Crowley, Eunice, Opelousas, and New Iberia an additional 6 to 10 inches of rain is likely. Rainfall accumulation decreases the further east and away from the storm you happen to be. Still, Baton Rouge and New Orleans could see an additional 4 to 6 inches of rain over the next five days.
(Updated 26 Aug 2017- 13:00 CDT) Harvey is a hurricane no more. The system was downgraded to tropical storm status at the 1 PM Advisory. The maximum sustained winds with the system were reported to be 70 mph.
The center of circulation was reported to be 45 miles west northwest of Victoria Texas or 60 miles east southeast of San Antonio. The system was drifting to the north northwest at 2 mph. The continued weakening of the system is expected for the remainder of the day.
The effects of Harvey on South Louisiana may not really be felt until early next week when the system is expected to move out of Texas. In the meantime, we can expect tropical rain bands to pass through the area with periods of very heavy rainfall.
(Updated 26 Aug 2017-10:00 CDT) Hurricane Harvey is just barely a hurricane as of the 10 AM advisory from the National Hurricane Center. The maximum sustained winds of the system were posted at 75 mph which is just one mile an hour above the hurricane threshold of 74 mph. The storm should be downgraded to tropical storm status perhaps as early as the 1 PM intermediate advisory.
The center of circulation of the storm was estimated to be 35 miles west of Victoria Texas or 80 miles east southeast of San Antonio. Harvey was drifting to the north at 2 mph. The system is expected to move very slowly or remain basically stationary through Monday.
The tropical forecast models and the official track from the Hurricane Center call for the system to drift slowly to the south and southeast toward the coast as a tropical storm. By early Wednesday forecasters believe Harvey will then begin to move northward out of the affected area.
The main threat from Harvey as a hurricane or tropical storm for South Louisiana continues to be heavy rainfall. Although forecasters now believe the rainfall totals will not be as copious as once believed. Still, that is not a reason to let down your guard where flooding is concerned since tropical rain bands can drop a lot of water in a very short period of time as they pass over a localized area.
Below are the rainfall predictions for the next several days.
(Updated 26 Aug 2017- 07:00 CDT) Hurricane Harvey continues to weaken but is still a very dangerous storm. The maximum sustained winds as of the 7 AM advisory were 80 mph. That is just six miles above the hurricane threshold and down significantly from when the storm made landfall late Friday.
The center of Harvey was determined to be about 20 miles west southwest of Victoria Texas or 95 miles southeast of San Antonio. The motion of the storm was listed at 6 mph to the northwest.
The next track advisory and forecast adjustment will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 10 AM CDT.
The effects of Harvey on south Louisiana will likely be heavy rainfall for the next several days. Forecasters predict that rainfall amounts of 6 to 10 inches will be common from the Atchafalaya Basin to the Texas line. The heaviest rainfall will likely occur west of a Crowley to Leesville line.
(Updated 26 Aug 2017- 04:00 CDT). The center of Hurricane Harvey continues to move inland over the middle Texas coast. This advisory indicated the center of the storm was 30 miles southwest of Victoria Texas or 105 miles southeast of San Antonio Texas.
The maximum sustained winds were estimated to be 100 mph. Hurricane force winds, greater than 74 mph, extended outward from the center a distance of 35 miles. Tropical storm force winds extended outward from the center 140 miles.
Harvey was moving to the northwest at 6 mph. The storm is expected to weaken to tropical storm status over the next several hours as it remains over land.
The official forecast track from the National Hurricane Center does suggest the system will stall later today and then begin to push back toward the coast. The consensus thinking suggests that the system will not move back over water before it loops around in a northerly direction.
The greatest threat for South Louisiana will be rainfall. The graphic below indicates likely rainfall totals for the area between now and next Saturday.