Scenarios for Qualifying for the Sun Belt Tournament – From the Bird’s Nest
It's done at the top. But it's crazy at the bottom.
With three games remaining, five teams are fighting for three spots in the Sun Belt Conference Tournament beginning Wednesday at Eddie Stanky Field in Mobile, AL.
No one has been eliminated as of yet, and the scenarios are many. Earlier this week I was trying to figure out how all the seeds could fall, but after studying it for awhile, I realized the possibilities are almost endless.
UL, Arkansas State, Texas State, WKU and UT Arlington have all clinched tournament berths.
I think I've managed to figure out what teams have to do (and need other teams to do) in order to qualify. And, I'm going to try to make it as concise as I can. Right now two games separate the bottom five teams. Here are the scenarios, beginning at the bottom.
UALR (9-18)--Home vs. Arkansas State
If UALR gets swept, they are eliminated.
If UALR goes 1-2, they qualify IF South Alabama sweeps Troy AND WKU sweeps Georgia State.
If UALR goes 2-1, they qualify IF South Alabama takes 2-3 from Troy AND WKU takes 2-3 from Georgia State.
If UALR goes 3-0, they qualify if Troy defeats South Alabama two games to one OR if USA defeats Troy two games to one AND Georgia State loses twice OR ULM gets swept by UL AND The Troy-South Alabama series ends with a sweep.
TROY (9-17) Home vs. South Alabama (Both teams have played one fewer conference game because of a rain out earlier in the season)
If Troy goes 0-3, they are eliminated.
If Troy goes 1-2 they qualify with one Arkansas State win over UALR AND a WKU sweep of Georgia State.
If Troy goes 2-1, they qualify with one Arkansas State win OR two WKU wins over Georgia State OR a UL sweep of ULM
If Troy goes 3-0j, they qualify.
GEORGIA STATE (10-17) at WKU
If GSU goes 0-3, they qualify with an Arkansas State sweep of UALR and a South Alabama sweep of Troy
If GSU goes 1-2, they qualify with a sweep by either Troy or South Alabama AND two Arkansas State wins over UALR
If GSU goes 2-1, they qualify with one UALR loss and a sweep by either Troy or South Alabama OR they will qualify with two wins and no sweep by either USA or Troy.
If GSU goes 3-0 They qualify
SOUTH ALABAMA (10-16)--at Troy
If South Alabama goes 0-3, they qualify if UALR loses twice AND Georgia State gets swept
If South Alabama goes 1-2, they qualify with one UALR loss and three Georgia State losses, OR one UALR loss and three ULM losses, or sweeps by UL AND WKU
If USA goes 2-1, they qualify with one loss by UALR, OR two losses by Georgia State OR three losses by ULM.
If USA goes 3-0, they qualify for the tournament.
ULM (11-16) at Louisiana
If ULM goes 0-3, they qualify with a sweep by either South Alabama or Troy AND one loss by UALR OR two losses by Georgia State. They also qualify with one UALR loss AND two losses by Georgia State
If ULM goes 1-2 they qualify with a split series between USA and Troy, OR a sweep by either USA or Troy AND a UALR loss OR a sweep by USA or Troy AND a Georgia State loss.
If ULM goes 2-1 or 3-0, they qualify.
Now, I've been off on these things before. But I'm pretty sure this is how it goes.
Confused? Me too. Let's just go play.