Scenario is Simple for Cajuns: Win, and You’re In

Louisiana's Ragin' Cajuns are still on the outside looking in for a berth in the Sun Belt Conference Baseball Tournament starting next Wednesday in Bowling Green, KY.

But they can walk through the front door if they win their final series this weekend against Louisiana-Monroe this Thursday-Saturday at M. L. "Tigue" Moore Field.

If the Cajuns win two of three on the weekend, they are assured of finishing no worse than eighth after tiebreakers are applied.  In fact, by winning twice this weekend, the Cajuns could finish as high as the #6 seed, depending on what else happens this weekend.

Here a few of the scenarios that could pop up:  All of these are predicated on the Cajuns winning the series.

1.  WKU wins two from Middle Tennessee, creating a three way tie for eighth:  The first tiebreaker is head to head to head competition.  In that case UL's 6-3 record trumps ULM's 4-5 and WKU's 2-4.  The Cajuns would be the #8 seed.  ULM and WKU would not qualify for the tournament.

2.  WKU wins two from Middle Tennessee and UALR loses two of three to Arkansas State, creating a four way tie for seventh:  The Cajuns would earn the #7 seed, based on the best winning percentage in head to head competition (.583).  After the #7 seed is decided, the three remaining teams would go to a tiebreaker and, with all having 3-3 records against each other, the tie would be broken based on record against the #1 seed, #2 seed and so on down the line until the tie is broken.

3.  WKU wins two of three from Middle Tennessee and Troy loses two of three to South Alabama, creating a four way tie for seventh.  The Cajuns would earn the #7 seed, again based on best winning percentage among the tied teams in head to head competition.  In this scenario, Troy would win the tiebreaker for the #8 seed.

4.  WKU wins two of three from Middle Tennessee, Troy loses two of three to South Alabama and UALR loses two of three to Arkansas State, creating a five-way tie for sixth.  In this scenario, the Cajuns would actually be the #6 seed based on winning percentage.  And, ULM would be the #7 seed after the Cajuns were taken out of the equation.  The other three would have to go to the top seed to break the tie for the eighth and final spot.

5.  Should WKU lose two of three and the Cajuns finish tied for eighth with ULM, the Cajuns get the #8 seed by virtue of head to head competition.

6.  Should WKU lose two of three and Troy lose two of three, creating a three way tie for seventh with Troy, ULM and the Cajuns, Troy would be the #7 seed and the Cajuns would be #8.

7.  Should WKU lose two of three and UALR lose two of three to ASU, The Cajuns would be the #7 seed, ULM would be #8 and UALR would be left out.

8.  And, if WKU loses twice along with Troy and UALR, making a four way tie for sixth, UALR would be the #6 seed, Troy would be #7 and the Cajuns would be eighth.

Now, there is a way, mathematically, for the Cajuns to lose two this weekend and still make the tournament, but that involves some sweeps in other series and for the sake of brevity, I won't get into that now.

And, if the Cajuns should sweep, they could actually get into the #5 spot for the tournament, but I'm not going to visit that right now either.

Here's the bottom line:  Just win, baby.