Aggies’ Defense Will Be Better, But Will They Be Good Enough?

(This is the twelfth in a series of 14 stories previewing the Sun Belt Conference and the 2015 opponents of the Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns.  Today:  New Mexico State.  The Aggies visit Cajun Field on Saturday, November 21st.)

After winning its first two games, New Mexico State and their fans hoped 2014 would be a turnaround type of year.

Then it turned around.  And, the Aggies didn’t’ win another game.

There are a lot of reasons why that happened.  But two of them were glaring.  Their defense, which featured as many as six freshmen at any given time, just couldn’t stop anyone.  They allowed nearly 40 points per game and gave up 484 yards per game, 310 of them on the ground.  There were problems on the other side of the ball as well, as quarterback Tyler Rogers threw more interceptions than any other quarterback in the FBS.  As a result, NMSU was -13 in turnover margin last season.  Everyone is a year older now, and coach Doug Martin is hoping that makes a difference.

OFFENSE—When they weren’t turning it over they were pretty good.  Rogers  threw for 2,779 yards and 19 touchdowns in 10 starts a year ago.  Larry Rose had a great year at running back as a freshman with 1,102 yards…and he only started eight games.  The Aggies lost two contributors outside, but they return their leading receiver Teldrick Morgan (75-903-7) along with Joshua Bowen (41-336-1) and Gregory Hogan (28-331-3).  Four of their top five return up front from an offensive line that paved the way for  421 yards per game and gave up just ten sacks.

DEFENSE—In addition to the numbers they gave up on the scoreboard, NMSU also had a lot of trouble getting to the quarterback, recording only five sacks.  There’s hope for the future, though, as the Aggies return ten starters defensively and have only three seniors in their projected lineup.  CB Winston Rose picked off five passes a year ago and eight of their top nine tacklers return, including Rodney Butler and Derek Ibekwe, who each recorded over 100 tackles last season.

SPECIAL TEAMS—Teldrick Morgan is back to return kicks, but the rest of the kicking game is new.  It appears freshman Parker Davidson will handle the kicking duties.  He was an outstanding kicker in Texas.  Alex Louthan punted just five times last year.  Davidson is capable of punting as well.

SCHEDULE:  They have to open at Florida but they’ll have a Fighting chance in the nest three:  Georgia State, UTEP (both at home) and New Mexico (4-8 last year).  They travel to Ole Miss in their other non conference game.  They also get Idaho and Troy at home and those will be winnable games.  Their road schedule in the league won’t be easy (UL, Texas St, ULM, Georgia Southern)  They do not play Appalachian State or South Alabama.

OUTLOOK:  Coach Doug Martin says he likes the way Rogers has matured and you have to believe he’ll cut down on those 23 interceptions.  Rose is a good one.  And, the defense is a year older and they’ll be somewhat better.  If NMSU gets that turnover margin closer to even, they’ll win some games.  But they’ll have to outscore folks to do it, because that defense still has a long way to go.  They could win as many as five or six games if they play well and if that defense gets better as they go.  That would be a pretty good mark, considering they’ve won just  eleven times in the last five years.